Plain-English breakdown of how every King's Top Tips pick is made — inputs (form, xG, H2H, bookmaker odds), the model rating and the 0.25u–3u stake guide. Picks are produced by our model with automated checks.
Plain-English breakdown of how every King's Top Tips selection is made. Tips are published usually by 4am UK with full reasoning; past results do not guarantee future outcomes.
How we pick — five steps, in order
Fixture screen. Day's fixture list pulled from API-Football. Only top-tier European leagues, the English pyramid, major UEFA/FIFA competitions and selected internationals make the shortlist. Reserve sides, friendlies and low-information leagues are excluded.
Inputs: form, xG, H2H, real odds. Each shortlisted match is scored on recent form (last 5–10 matches, home/away split), rolling Expected Goals (xG for/against), head-to-head over the last 5 meetings, and live bookmaker market odds (API-Football third-party data feed).
Model rating. Our model compares its estimate with the bookmaker price before publishing.
Stake guide. Each card carries a stake guide (0.25u–3u) — the same grid for free and VIP picks. No discretionary stake bumps. Maximum 2 Rated Picks per match per day, each on a different prediction.
After publication. After publication we may regrade, void, correct kick-off times, move picks between free and VIP, edit reasoning, or exclude a pick from the record. Settlement is automated from API-Football final scores.
Cross-references: today's picks live on /tips; the educational background is in our betting guides; our standards are on /editorial-policy. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.